I just learned a new word and it’s pseudocertainty. So what is it?
The Definition of Pseudocertainty
According to an article at Fantasy Football Scout, pseudocertainty occurs when we take fewer risks when all is going well. If not, we take more risks. That’s why I traded Theilen for Allen straight up when I was winless and had not one, not two, but three of my QBs go missing in action (elbow, foot, mono).
But is this bias leading us in the right direction?
As of this writing, I’m 0-3, but now I’m comfortable with it. I have two RBs clogging up my bench who will never start unless Cook and Elliot go down. Yet, I’m standing pat with these rookies. I’m not doing anything foolish. The Pseudocertainty Effect may be telling me to take risks. I will do so through careful analysis only.